Kari Lake Gets Bad News From America’s Most Accurate Pollster

Arizona Republican Kari Lake received bad news on Saturday from new polling as she campaigns for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.
The poll released by the Times that was conducted by Siena College, which has previously earned a reputation for accuracy and transparency, shows the race has Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego leading among likely electorate voters, with 51 percent compared to Lake’s 42 percent. While 8 percent said they do not know which candidate to vote for or refused to answer.
The poll of 677 registered voters in Arizona was conducted from August 8 through 15 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points among registered voters and among the likely electorate, it is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points in Arizona.
Independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema announced in March that she is not running for reelection, leaving her seat open. Lake won the Republican nomination in late July, beating Sheriff Mark Lamb, with over 55 percent of the vote. Gallego ran unopposed.
However, Saturday’s poll comes just days after the Senate race was deadlocked with an internal poll of 800 likely voters. Conducted by Peak Insights from July 31 to August 5 and shared exclusively with National Journal’s hotline, the internal poll showed Lake and Gallego tied at 46 percent, with 8 percent undecided. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
That poll had brought positive news for Lake, the Republican candidate endorsed by former President Donald Trump, who has mainly been trailing Gallego in public polls.
Poll aggregators, including The Hill and RealClearPolitics, previously showed Gallego ahead by 5.8 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively.
Newsweek has reached out to Lake’s campaign and Gallego’s campaign via email for comment.
The shift comes as the Senate is currently controlled by the Democrats, who hold 51 seats, including four independents who caucus with the party, while Republicans hold 49. November’s election could change control of the chamber.
In 2022, Lake ran unsuccessfully for governor of Arizona, losing the election by more than 17,000 votes. She refused to acknowledge her loss, however, and has been involved in several court challenges. She is a vocal supporter of Trump’s claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him due to widespread voter fraud despite no evidence.
Amid the presidential election, Saturday’s poll also shows Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, leading Trump in North Carolina 49 to 47 percent. The poll features results in four battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina—with 2,670 likely voters surveyed between August 8 through 15 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points.
Along with North Carolina, the poll found that Harris leads in Arizona with 50 percent versus Trump’s 45 percent. However, Trump continues to lead in Georgia with 50 percent and Harris at 46 percent. Trump also narrowly leads in Nevada with 48 percent versus the vice president’s 47 percent.